[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hermine is centered near 34.1N 78.4W at 03/0300
UTC or about 26 nm west-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina
and about 156 nm west-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N-39W between 71W-79W.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding is possible in the path of
Hermine. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 40.1N 28.7W at 03/0300 UTC
or about 91 nm northwest of Faial Island in the central Azores
and about 109 nm west-northwest of Lajes Air Base in the Azores
moving east-northeast at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. No deep convection is noted with this system.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with an axis
extending from 21N26W to a 1011 mb low near 17N27W to 09N27W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The northern portion of this wave is
interacting with African dust which is inhibiting convection.
Scattered moderate convection prevails where the wave interacts
with the Monsoon Trough mainly south of 12N between 24W-29W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N47W to a 1009 mb low near 13N47W to 07N47W,
moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a moderately
moist environment with upper-level diffluence supporting
scattered moderate convection from 14N-17N between 46W-53W. This
wave is also generating a broad area of fresh to strong easterly
winds across the northern portion of it.

A tropical wave was introduced in this analysis, extending across
the central Caribbean from 16N73W into northern Colombia near
08N74W. This feature is well depicted in model guidance and it is
embedded in an area of abundant moisture, as noted in TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the southern
portion of the wave mainly south of 12N between 72W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W to the 10111 mb low and wave near 17N27W. The
boundary resumes near 11N28W to the 1009 mb low and wave near
13N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 25N93W to
19N96W. Isolated convection prevails near the trough. A thermal
surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing
convection over the southern portion of the Peninsula. To the
east; a trailing surface trough related to T.S. Hermine extends
from 26N90W to 28N83W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
south of this trough mainly between 85W-90W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle easterly winds over the western half of the basin
while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail east of 90W.
During the next 24 hours: the trough over the eastern Gulf will
remain nearly stationary. The trough over the southwestern Gulf
will drift toward the Mexico coast with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low
prevails over the western Caribbean centered near 20N83W supporting
isolated convection west of 81W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to locally fresh trade winds across the basin. Expect during the
next 24 hours the tropical wave to continue moving west over the
central/west Caribbean helping to bring an increase in the trades
over the south central Caribbean. Another tropical wave will
reach the eastern Caribbean by Saturday night to Sunday with
showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will
accompany the northern portion of this wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

The southern portion of a surface trough extending into the
Atlantic supports isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
island. This activity will dissipate within the next few hours and
dry conditions will prevail overnight. A tropical wave will help
increasing easterly winds across the island along with showers and
thunderstorms by Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Gaston is rapidly weakening as it nears the Azores
while Tropical Storm Hermine is just inland over the Carolinas.
Please refer to the section above for details. Two tropical waves
are moving across the basin. Please refer to the tropical waves
section above for details. Strong to near gale southwesterly winds
are north of 28N west of 75W as well as seas to 13 feet. To the
east; a surface trough extends from north-central Hispaniola to
23N70W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed along this
boundary. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N49N and a 1023 mb high
near 33N28W. During the next 24 hours: Tropical Storm Hermine will
track northeastward north of our area. However, fresh to strong
winds and large seas will continue along the extreme northwestern
portion of our discussion waters over the weekend. The tropical
waves will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms as they
move westward across the remainder of the central tropical
Atlantic through late Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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