[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 030238
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016

A 2222 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that Gaston was producing maximum
winds of 30-35 kt in its southeastern quadrant.  The initial
intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt, but Gaston won't be a
tropical storm for much longer.  The last bit of deep convection
dissipated around 1800 UTC, so the cyclone is likely to be declared
post-tropical Saturday morning.  The remnant low is likely to
maintain 30-kt winds until it dissipates in 36 hours, based on
guidance from the global models.

The initial motion is 070/14 kt.  The remnant low is expected to
turn northeastward and accelerate away from the Azores during the
next 24 hours ahead of an approaching cold front.  The track models
agree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains close to the
TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 40.1N  28.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 41.1N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0000Z 43.3N  23.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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