[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Hermine at 02/1800 UTC is inland,
in southeastern Georgia, about 50 nm to the west-southwest of
Savannah in Georgia, and about 115 nm to the west-southwest of
Charleston in South Carolina. Hermine is moving northeastward,
or 40 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with
gusts to 55 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong in
the Atlantic Ocean from 32N to 34N between 76W and 79W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in Florida's Atlantic
Ocean costal waters, across Florida, and in the Gulf of Mexico
within 60 nm to 75 on either side of the line from 29N80W, to
26N86W, to 25N90W, to 22N94W. A surface trough is along 29N85W
27N88W 25N92W. The trough trails well to the southwest, away
from Hermine. Heavy rain already has fallen in parts of Florida,
before Hermine made landfall earlier this morning. Expect more
rain in Georgia and in the Carolinas, as Hermine continues
moving northeastward. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
and the Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Gaston at 02/1800 UTC is near 39.1N
32.0W, or about 155 nm to the west-northwest of Faiala Island in
the central part of the Azores, and about 230 nm to the west of
Lajes Air Base in the Azores. Gaston is moving east-
northeastward, 70 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 37N to 40N between
28W and 32W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up
well in infrared satellite imagery and in observations from the
Cabo Verde Islands. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the
tropical wave near 17N. Convective precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N to 18N between Africa and
30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is on top of the area of the tropical
wave. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 13N.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 11N to 18N from 12N to 18N between 41W and 52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W to 13N20W, to 10N30W 11N35W, to 10N40W, and to
10N54W. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 06N to
08N between 28W and 32W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 18W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature has been Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine made
landfall in Florida near St. Mark's, about one hour after
midnight. A surface trough trails the cyclonic wind flow that
still surrounds Hermine, along 29N85W 27N88W 25N92W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
Florida's Atlantic Ocean costal waters, across Florida, and in
the Gulf of Mexico within 60 nm to 75 on either side of the line
from 29N80W, to 26N86W, to 25N90W, to 22N94W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the central and western
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, as Hermine continues moving
northeastward. Isolated moderate from 26N to 28N between 93W
and 96W.

A diurnal surface trough is moving through the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 93W/94W from 23N southward.
Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 20N to 21N
between 95W and 96W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 23N
southward between 94W and the coast of Mexico.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N79W.
this is the same cyclonic circulation center that was affecting
Hispaniola directly for the last few days. Upper level
southeasterly wind flow now is moving across Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W
westward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong in northeastern Nicaragua. Isolated moderate from
11N to 13N from 80W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air
in subsidence are covering that part of the Caribbean Sea that
is to the east of the 16N79W cyclonic circulation center.

A surface trough is along 65W/66W from 16N to the coast of
Venezuela. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from the coast of Venezuela to 16.5N between 65W
and 71W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.15 in Acapulco
in Mexico, 0.56 in Bermuda, 0.45 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
0.24 in Merida in Mexico, 0.19 in Monterrey in Mexico, 0.17 in
Guadalajara in Mexico, 0.14 in Guadeloupe, 0.12 in Trinidad, and
0.09 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

A weak inverted trough is in the southwestern corner of the area.
Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
coastal Colombia into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in northern Colombia,
beyond northwestern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation:
Scattered strong from 08N to 11N between 80W and 83W from Panama
to Costa Rica. Warming cloud top temperatures and remaining
rainshowers are in an area of earlier even stronger
precipitation, that was in coastal Colombia and Colombia's
coastal waters, and that now is from 08N to 14N between 75W and
80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level southeasterly wind flow now is moving across
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...and few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings, few
cumulonimbus clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings,
and few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: MVFR and few
cumulonimbus clouds.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that day
one will consist of SE wind flow at the start, followed by anti-
cyclonic wind flow, followed by NE wind flow. Day two will
consist of a cyclonic circulation center that will be
approaching from the east, spreading cyclonic wind flow across
the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one
will consist of easterly wind flow that eventually will become
NE wind flow by the end of day one. Day two will consist of NE
wind flow, and an inverted trough at the end of day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow, and two
inverted troughs, will move across the area during the next 48
hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 33N76W. A surface trough
extends from the low center to 31N79W. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong from 29N to 34N between 71W and 75W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 28N northward from 68W westward.

A surface trough is along 23N65W to 20N67W, into the Mona
Passage. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N in
the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 65W and
72W.

An upper level ridge extends from a 27N64W anticyclonic
circulation center, into the northeastern corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to 16N58W and 10N60W. Isolated moderate convective
precipitation is from 09N to 13N between 58W and 62W.

An upper level trough is along the coast of Africa from 20N
northward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N29W. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center
covers the area from 20N to 30N between 20W and 40W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N27W, to a 1024 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N47W, to 27N71W, across the
Bahamas and Cuba, to 21N85W in the northwestern part of the
Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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