[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 021452
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016

Data from a recent ASCAT overpass indicate that the storm
is a little stronger than previously estimated.  The advisory
intensity is set to 60 kt based on the scatterometer winds.
Vertical shear over the system is currently around 20 kt and is
forecast to increase to near 30 kt within the next day or so, and
the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters.
Weakening is forecast in agreement with the IVCN intensity model
consensus.  Gaston should weaken to a remnant low before becoming
absorbed by a frontal system in 48 hours or less.

Based on the scatterometer data and conventional geostationary
satellite fixes, the motion is east-northeastward or 070/16.
Gaston should continue on an east-northeastward track, following the
flow on the south side of the mid-latitude westerlies, until
dissipation.  The official track forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 39.1N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 39.5N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 40.7N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 42.5N  24.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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