[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Hermine is centered near 29.7N 84.3W at 02/0300 UTC or
about 35 nm east of Apalachicola, Florida and about 65 nm
southwest of Keaton Beach, Florida moving north-northeast at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms moderate are north of 27N east
of 86W. The feeding band of the system extends to the Yucatan
Peninsula supporting scattered moderate convection south of 22N
between 87W-92W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Gaston is centered near 38.3N 36.0W at 02/0300 UTC or
about 405 nm west of Faial Island in the central Azores and about
480 nm west of Lajes Air Base in the Azores moving east-
northeast at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 38N-41N between 30W-35W.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis with axis
extending from 21N20W to a 1012 mb surface low near 16N21W to
09N20W. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and globalmodels.
TPW imagery shows the wave embedded in a area of abundant
moisture between 09N-20N. Isolated moderate convection is observed
in the vicinity of the wave mainly east of 22W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 20N39W to 09N40W, moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough
depicted by global models and is embedded within a surge of deep
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 39W-44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 10N53W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-11N east of 39W and from 09N-12N between 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary concern across the basin Hurricane Hermine which is
expected to make landfall within the next hour over the Florida
Panhandle. For more information, please refer to the section
above. A surface trough extends from 22N94W to 27N86W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed southeast of the trough affecting
the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche, the Yucatan
Peninsula, the southwest Gulf waters including the Florida
Straits. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly
winds west of 88W while moderate to fresh winds prevail east of
88W except north of 26N where Hurricane Hermine is enhancing winds
and seas. Expect for Hermine to continue moving northeast during
the next 24 hours across the Florida Panhandle and southeast
CONUS.Winds and seas will decrease over the Gulf waters by this
evening through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
16N76W enhancing isolated convection across the waters north of
14N and west of 76W. To the east; a surface trough extend from the
Atlantic to the U.S. Virgin Islands region near 18N65W with
isolated convection. Another surface trough extends over the
Windward Islands from 17N61W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is related to this trough currently extending from 11N-
14N between 63W-67W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin. Expect through the next 24 hours for the
surface troughs to continue moving west with convection. A
tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. The surface
trough over the Virgin Islands will continue moving westward
bringing moisture to the island by Friday supporting showers and
thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Gaston continues moving northeast toward the northern
Azores Islands. See the Special features above for details. Two
tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms generated by Hurricane Hermine are north of 26N
west of 78W. To the southeast; a surface trough extends from
23N59W to the Virgin Island region near 18N65W. Isolated
convection prevails along this feature. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near
29N49N and a 1027 mb high near 35N28W. Hurricane Hermine is
expected to track inland along the southeast CONUS through the
next 24 hours before entering the northwest Atlantic by late
Saturday as a tropical storm. Strong southerly winds and high
seas will develop over the west Atlantic as the system moves
through. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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