[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HURRICANE HERMINE HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
United States Atlantic coast north of Surf City to Duck, North
Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Duck to Sandy Hook,
New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward,
and the southern Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to Sandy Hook
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
* Southern Delaware Bay

Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hermine was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.0 West.  Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the hurricane warning area tonight
or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight additional strengthening is forecast before
landfall.  Weakening will begin after Hermine crosses the coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning tonight.  Winds are already near
tropical storm strength in portions of the warning area, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along
the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the
weekend.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along
the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown...6 to 9 feet
Yankeetown to Aripeka...4 to 7 feet
Aripeka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches.  On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected
to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South
Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
north Florida and southeast Georgia.  The tornado risk will continue
across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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