[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 011459
TCDAT2

HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016

Despite a degraded satellite presentation, a 1302 UTC ASCAT-B pass
over Gaston showed a large area of hurricane force winds southeast
of the center and peak winds of 75 kt, and that will serve as the
initial intensity for this advisory.  Weakening is forecast as
Gaston moves across the 26C SST isotherm later today and the
vertical shear is expected to increase to 20-30 kt by 48 hours.
Gaston should fall below hurricane strength tonight and gradually
lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours.  The low is forecast to
dissipate by 72 hours, as shown in the global models.  The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the new IVCN intensity consensus aid.

The hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward, 070/21.  Gaston
will continue moving generally east-northeastward within the mid-
latitude westerlies through dissipation.  The new NHC forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope and the multi-model
consensus TVCN.

Based on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico,
Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 37.6N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.4N  37.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 39.1N  32.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 39.7N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 41.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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