[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 86.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from Marineland Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from north of South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin
* Marineland to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 86.6 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the warning area tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is expected to
be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning tonight.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Friday
night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to
produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 10 inches
possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and
eastern North Carolina through Saturday.  These rains may cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Friday
morning over north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk
will continue across the eastern CarolinaS from Friday morning into
Friday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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