[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
100 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE CRAWLING NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to South Santee River

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in the
Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 87.0 West. Hermine
has been moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (9 km/h) during
the past couple of hours, but should begin to move toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed soon.  On the
forecast track, the center will be near the Florida coast in the
warning area Thursday night.

Preliminary reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to
36 hours, and Hermine is expected to be a hurricane by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning Thursday night.  Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Thursday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Friday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass.  For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017.  This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL:  Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday.  These rains
may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two is possible overnight near the central
Florida coast.  The tornado risk will increase through Thursday and
spread into north Florida and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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