[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure, that is in the Atlantic Ocean, is centered
about 450 miles to the SSW of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina,
and moving northward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and surface
cyclonic wind flow cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
from 65W westward. An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic
Ocean that is about 450 nm to the east of the coast of Georgia,
across the Bahamas and Cuba, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico
from 85W eastward, and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The
thunderstorm activity, that is associated with this feature, is
limited and the chances for this system to become a subtropical or
tropical cyclone are diminishing. This low pressure center is
expected to merge with a large frontal system tonight or early
Saturday. The chance of this weather feature forming into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong covers the SW part of
Haiti and surrounding waters, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
to 25N between 66W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the Atlantic Ocean elsewhere from 20N northward from
50W westward.

The Gulf of Mexico High Seas forecast consists of: a cold front
from 30N85W TO 25N96W TO 20N96W. Expect gale-force winds, and sea
heights to 8 feet, in about 12 hours, to the south of 24N to the
west of the cold front. Please read the High Seas Forecast...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the Offshore Forecast...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of:
the persistence of a W or NW near gale or gale in the northern
part of IRVING and in the northern part of MADEIRA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
08N to 15N between 30W and 50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia to 05N20W and 04N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N23W to 04N33W and 04N40W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 02N to 11N from 30W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the eastern part of the
contiguous U.S.A. The trough reaches the Florida Panhandle, and
then it curves westward across the northern waters of the Gulf of
Mexico. The trough supports a cold front that is moving through
the Florida Panhandle, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the
Mexico coast near 24N98W. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is
along 92W/93W from 25N southward, into the SW corner of the Gulf
of America. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 27N southward from 90W westward. Upper level W and NW
wind flow is to the west of the upper level trough.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to Florida: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the W
and NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage, to
eastern sections of Honduras. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow,
with a ridge, covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N
southward from 73W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is reaching parts of the eastern
Caribbean Sea, from 65W eastward,at the edge of the cyclonic wind
flow that is moving around an Atlantic Ocean 09N55W cyclonic
circulation center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery in the area of the cyclonic wind
flow.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...1.21 in Bermuda,
0.43 in Freeport in the Bahamas, and 0.03 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W to NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong covers the SW part of
Haiti and surrounding waters. Hispaniola is to the east of an
Atlantic Ocean-to-NW Caribbean Sea upper level trough and related
upper level cyclonic wind flow, that have been in place during the
last few days.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: rain. Santo
Domingo: MVFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows broad anticyclonic wind
flow will cover the area during the next 48 hours, with an
anticyclonic circulation center and a ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that mostly SW wind flow will move
across the area during day one, eventually giving way to a bit of
a ridge across the area at the end of day one. Expect anticyclonic
wind flow with a ridge for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 MB show that SW wind flow will cover much of the area, except
for SE wind flow in the easternmost parts of the island, during
day one. Day one will end with a NE-to-SW oriented ridge across
the area. Day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow, with a
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 09N55W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
southward between 47W in the Atlantic Ocean and 65W in the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 06N to 16N between
50W and 57W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 36N18W. An
upper level trough supports a cold front that passes through
32N22W to 29N33W and 27N42W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N39W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 26N39W cyclonic
center covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between 33W
and 53W. A surface trough is along 32N29W 27N38W 25N47W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 30N
between 22W and 44W. rainshowers are possible to the N and NW of
the line that passes through 32N23W 21N38W 23N53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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