[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An elongated non-tropical 1005 mb surface low is centered northeast
of the central Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered moderate convection
and isolated tstms are from 20N to 30N between 56W and 76W.
Showers associated with this low are also affecting Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions could
become a little more conducive for the low to acquire some
tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and this
system could still become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before
it merges with a cold front over the western Atlantic late Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the northern Leeward
Islands through today. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

Gale force winds are expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico
Friday night associated with a cold front that will enter the NW
waters of the Gulf early Friday morning. NW to N gale force winds
are forecast for the area S of 25N W of the front with seas to 10
ft. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
15N with axis near 39W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave continues in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear. However, CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb show the
wave is in an abundant moist environment that along with divergent
upper level wind flow support scattered moderate convection from
01N to 15N between 31W and 45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 09N25W to 09N41W. The ITCZ begins near
09N41W and continues to 07N50W to 07N57W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 08N between 20W and 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the SE CONUS extends SW into the Gulf,
thus providing E-SE gentle to moderate flow basin-wide, except for
the Bay of Campeche where winds are from the NE. Middle to upper
level ridging and strong dry air subsidence persist across the
basin supporting stable and fair weather conditions. The current
wind regime will persist through this afternoon, then NE wind
flow will dominate ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters early Friday morning. The front is expected to reach S
Florida Saturday near sunrise. Gale force winds are expected to
develop W of the front S of 25N Friday night. See special features
section for further details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated area of low pressure in the SW N Atlantic waters
centered northeast of the central Bahamas, and upper divergence
generated by the upper trough that support the low and a ridge to
the east over the central Atlantic continue to support scattered
showers and tstms across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Isolated
showers are across Puerto Rico. In the central basin, surface
observations indicate the presence of a surface trough that
extends from 18N74W to Panama near 09N78W with scattered showers
within 120 nm either side of its axis. The low in the special
features section continue to support gentle to moderate SE wind E
of 71W and NE flow of the same magnitude W of 77W. Showers will
cease for Puerto Rico Friday and will continue across Hispaniola
through the weekend. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop
in the central basin today and will persist through Saturday. A
cold front will reach the NW basin Saturday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

An elongated area of low pressure centered northeast of the
central Bahamas and upper divergence continue to support
scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Showers
associated with this low will continue across Hispaniola through
the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature of interest in the basin is an area of low
pressure centered northeast of the central Bahamas, which is
generating scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms from
20N to 30N between 56W and 76W. There is a medium chance for this
area of low pressure to become a cyclone. See special features
for further details. Fresh to near gale force winds are in the SW
N Atlantic waters associated with this low. Please see the High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details. The other feature of interest is a tropical wave in
the central Atlantic. See the tropical waves section for further
details. Also in the central Atlantic, the remnants of a
stationary front are analyzed as a surface trough extending from
31N36W to 24N48W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of
the trough axis N of 25N. The remainder basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge. The area of low pressure NE of the
Bahamas will move NW today and will weaken into a surface trough
Friday ahead of a cold front that will come off the NE Florida
Peninsula Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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