[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 172048
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Although Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is
is steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become
elongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened
considerably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops
to -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at
T4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.
Nicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will
be moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which
should extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a
result, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later
tonight or Tuesday morning.

The initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked
up by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As
the amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane
is forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight,
followed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the
cyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the
next three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in
best agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large
area of high seas.  Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North
Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 42.7N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 45.4N  40.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/1800Z 51.0N  37.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0600Z 56.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1800Z 61.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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