[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 161456
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

Nicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The
satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized
than several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still
evident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold
cloud tops.  The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a
little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is
over 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the
next day or two, there should be enough instability for the
continuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone.
Therefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes
the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it
is absorbed by an upper-level trough.

Nicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now
largely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow.  A slow
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed
by an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the
approach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is
currently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in
relatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little
slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

The initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B
pass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used
for the forecast wind radii.

The primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas.  Recent
wave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas
exist near the hurricane.  In addition, swells from Nicole are
spreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC
and TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate
outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next
few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 39.1N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 39.5N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 41.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 43.8N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 48.5N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/1200Z 58.6N  35.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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