[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 160235
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

Nicole appears to be trying to develop some inner-core convection
with cloud tops cooling near the center during the past several
hours.  Although there is cold advection occurring on the back side
of the cyclone, recent AMSU data confirm that Nicole has a
well-defined warm core.  CIMSS intensity estimates from the AMSU
data indicated that Nicole was still producing maximum winds
between 68-77 kt, and the latest classification from TAFB increased
from six hours ago.  Based on these data, the initial intensity
remains 75 kt.

Global model fields show that Nicole is likely to maintain its warm
core for another 48 hours.  Even though sea surface temperatures
will be decreasing from 24C to 20C during that time, upper-level
temperatures will also be cooling, which should keep the
environment unstable enough for Nicole to generate convection
within its core.  Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated
during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast most
closely follows the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities.  Nicole is
expected to lose its warm core and become extratropical by 72
hours, and it should then be absorbed by another weather system by
120 hours between Iceland and Greenland.

Nicole's center has turned eastward and slowed down with an initial
motion of 080/9 kt.  Nicole is cut off from the faster mid-latitude
flow to its north, and it is therefore expected to move only slowly
eastward or northeastward during the next 36 hours.  After that
time, a shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada should cause
Nicole to accelerate toward the north-northeast and north between
48-96 hours.  The updated NHC track forecast is close to the various
consensus models and not too different from the previous forecast.

Nicole's initial tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded
based on a recent ASCAT-B pass.  Guidance from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 39.4N  48.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 39.4N  47.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 39.9N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 41.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 43.8N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 53.7N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/0000Z 63.0N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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