[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 150834
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016

The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of
the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still
well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.

As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is
difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one
should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.
However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery
continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or
so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with
tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the
cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.

After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed
down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about
15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough
and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track
with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably
kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the
previous one.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 38.1N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 38.7N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 38.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 39.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 39.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 54.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0600Z 62.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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