[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 140834
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016

The cloud pattern has degraded significantly during the past few
hours. The low-level center is difficult to locate, but it appears
to be separated and well to the southwest of an area of weakening
convection due to southwesterly shear.  This is supported by an
ASCAT pass a few hours ago, which showed the vigorous surface
circulation to the southwest of the limited thunderstorm activity.
Based on Dvorak T-numbers which are weakening as fast as the rules
allow, and data from ASCAT, the initial intensity is lowered to 75
kt.

Although Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due
to the strong shear and low SSTs, global models indicate that the
system should remain a powerful cyclone for a few days. The new NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the
trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. It is expected
that Nicole becomes a post-tropical cyclone is about 24 hours or so,
but it is uncertain when Nicole will complete the extratropical
transition.

The best estimate of the initial motion is be 065/18. Nicole is
well embedded within the mid-latitude flow, and this pattern should
steer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next day or
so. Some decrease in forward speed is anticipated beyond 36 hours
while Nicole interacts with passing shortwaves. The NHC forecast is
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope primarily during the
next 2 to 3 days.

The post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind
radii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.

Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of
the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days.  By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period
swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the
North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 35.4N  59.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 36.5N  56.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 37.7N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  15/1800Z 38.5N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  16/0600Z 39.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  17/0600Z 39.0N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  18/0600Z 42.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  19/0600Z 48.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila
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