[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 132033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...NICOLE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 63.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 63.2 West.  Nicole is moving
toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h).  A turn toward the east-
northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or
on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move
farther away from Bermuda this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Nicole could become a post-tropical cyclone
on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).  The Bermuda airport recently reported sustained
winds of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue over Bermuda through
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda.  The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  The storm
surge should subside this evening.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall on Bermuda should diminish this evening.

SURF:  Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few
days.  These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip
currents.  Please refer to products being issued by your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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