[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 122033
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

Nicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.
The eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and
the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a
result, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to
T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates
were slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning's
reconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt,
which is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Nicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity.

Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the
hurricane through tonight could allow for some additional
strengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane
strength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening.
Strong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause
Nicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected
to keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period.
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to
how much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have
late in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low
confidence at that time.

Nicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane
will be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will
cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then
northeastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the
core of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72
hours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which
should cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic
at days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 29.2N  66.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 30.5N  66.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 32.7N  64.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 34.6N  61.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 36.6N  57.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 38.8N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  16/1800Z 38.8N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/1800Z 40.0N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
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