[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 120836
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive
with a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper-
level outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain
4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the
Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on
a blend of these estimates.  An Air Force plane will be in the eye
of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an
intensity update.

Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional
strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at
its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda.  After 36 hours,
the shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some
weakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96
hours.  Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical
cyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does
the NHC forecast.

Satellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north-
northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not
changed, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become
embedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should
force Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a
gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36
hours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda.  The
forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 27.9N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 28.9N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 30.6N  66.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 32.6N  64.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 35.0N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 39.0N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 40.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  17/0600Z 40.0N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Avila
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