[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 112037
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

Nicole has continued to strengthen today with the cloud pattern
becoming much better organized since this morning.  A 20 to 25 n mi
wide eye has developed and become better defined within a rather
symmetric central dense overcast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft that investigated Nicole this afternoon has measured
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt, SFMR winds of around 65 kt,
and a minimum pressure of 980 mb.  Based on these data, and the
continued increase in organization the initial wind speed has been
increased to 70 kt.

Environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and
warm sea surface temperatures along the track of Nicole should allow
for additional intensification during the next day or so.  In fact,
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows nearly a 30 percent
chance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours.
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
advisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength
when it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours.  The NHC forecast
calls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours,
but is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models.  Later
in the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should
result in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole
will become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North
Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Nicole is moving
northwestward at about 4 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisory.  Nicole should turn northward
into a break in the subtropical ridge by Wednesday and then turn
northeastward as it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
dynamical models remain in good agreement, and the updated NHC
forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope.  The new
official forecast is also very similar to the previous track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.4N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 28.0N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 29.1N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 30.8N  66.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 33.1N  64.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 38.0N  59.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 41.0N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/1800Z 41.5N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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