[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.2N 65.3W at 09/2100 UTC
or about 487 nm S of Bermuda and remains nearly stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are from 20N-26N between 60W-67W. Cloudiness and
isolated showers related to Nicole as well as swells are moving
across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at this time. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N42W to 05N43W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment which
combined with a diffluent upper-level flow generated by a short-
wave trough near the wave area supports scattered moderate
convection from 10N-13N between 39W-46W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic just east of the Lesser
Antilles with axis extending from 17N58W to 08N60W, moving west at
15 kt over the past 24 hours. A  diffluent upper-level
flow supports scattered showers from 11N-14N between 55W-60W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis from 19N73W
to 10N74W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the past 24 hours. Abundant
moisture prevails in the wave's environment and a trough at 700
mb is depicted in model guidance. Isolated showers are from 13N-16N
between 74W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
10N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N22W to
07N41W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave near the ITCZ, scattered showers are from 02N-10N between
33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary has lost support at upper levels and extends
across the central Gulf waters from 24N96W to 28N83W. No
significant convection is related to this feature. Scatterometer
data depict moderate to fresh northerly winds across the northern
portion of the basin north of the front while a gentle to moderate
easterly flow prevails south of the front. A surface trough
extends just north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N92W to
23N87W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this boundary
between 85W-91W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the frontal
boundary to continue weakening until dissipation. Surface ridging
will prevail across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details. The Monsoon Trough
extends across the southwest Caribbean along 10N between 76W-83W
supporting scattered moderate convection. Tropical Storm Nicole
continues nearly-stationary over southwest Atlantic waters just
north of Puerto Rico supporting isolated showers over Puerto Rico,
the Virgin Islands, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the west and central
Caribbean waters while moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
prevail east of 70W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
tropical wave to continue moving west. The convection over the
northeast Caribbean will begin to dissipate as Nicole moves
north. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern portion of
the basin with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers associated with Tropical Storm Nicole continue
across the island as this cyclone is nearly-stationary over
southwest Atlantic waters north of Puerto Rico. This convection
will continue through the next 12 hours and begin to dissipate as
Nicole moves north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main concern across the basin is Tropical Storm Nicole
located over southwest Atlantic waters just north of Puerto Rico.
For winds and seas information associated to Nicole, see the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC and also the special features section above. Two tropical
waves are moving across the basin. For more details, refer to the
section above. A frontal boundary extends from the Gulf of Mexico,
across the Florida Peninsula and into the west Atlantic waters
from 28N80W to 29N77W. To the east; another front extends from
26N74W to 32N70W. NO significant convection is related to any of
these boundaries at this time. A frontal system extends across the
central Atlantic analyzed as a stationary front from 32N54W to
28N49W then ans a cold front from that point to 32N33W. Isolated
showers prevail along the cold front. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary
1021 high centered near 33N17W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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