[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 091456
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
extratropical low.  Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt.  Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt.  The global models
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
about 48 hours.

Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt.  The low should continue
moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
next day or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
by non-tropical wind warnings.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina
Outer Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force
possible during the next hour or two.  Storm surge flooding
continues over portions of the Outer Banks.  Please see the
Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
areas at risk.

2.  Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 35.2N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  10/0000Z 35.3N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  10/1200Z 35.7N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/0000Z 37.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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