[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 090850
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW
MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS...
...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Little River Inlet to south of Cape Fear
has been discontinued.  The Hurricane Warning from Cape Fear to
Surf City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface
observations near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Matthew
is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass
just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning, and then
move well east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly
to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A sustained wind of 61 mph
(98 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h) were recently measured by
a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina.  A wind
gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was reported at Elizabeth City, North
Carolina, and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at the
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station near Morehead City, North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and
extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,
continues to result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding
across the region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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