[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 33.8N 78.2W at 08/2100 UTC or
about 13 nm west-southwest of Cape Fear North Carolina, moving
east-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 33N between 74W-
82W. The center of Matthew will continue moving near the coast of
southern North Carolina tonight, with hurricane and tropical
storm conditions expected to continue over the warned areas through
the night. The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises
to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the
center. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 24.8N 65.8W at 08/2100 UTC
or about 452 nm south of Bermuda moving south-southwest at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A cluster of heavy
showers and thunderstorms extends from 19N-25N between 62W-69W.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N36W to 06N38W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is in a region where dry air prevails and with no
upper-level support, no significant convection has developed.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 17N50W to 07N53W, moving west at 15-20 kt over the past 24
hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment which
along with a diffluent flow in both the middle and upper levels
support scattered moderate convection from 10N-16N between 46W-
54W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N67W to 11N69W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Abundant moisture also prevails in this wave's environment
supporting scattered moderate convection from 13N-18N between
66W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 11N22W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 09N36W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, isolated showers is observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern half of the basin from
23N97W to 26N91W to 30N86W. Isolated showers are observed along
the western portion of the front affecting the Bay of Campeche west
of 95W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail north of the
front while gentle easterly winds are south of the front. Water
vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence across the basin.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the front to continue moving
south across the basin enhancing winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern portion of the basin.
Please refer tot the section above for details. An upper-level
trough is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends over
the west Caribbean from 21N85W to 17N87W. The diffluent flow
enhanced by this upper-level trough and the proximity of the
Monsoon Trough are enhancing scattered moderate convection over
portions of Central America and the southern Caribbean waters
south of 16N between 79W-86W. The tropical wave described above
and the proximity of Tropical Storm Nicole located north of
Puerto Rico in the SW N Atlantic, are supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern
waters between 65W-70W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades across the basin. Expect during next 24 hours for the
wave to continue moving west with convection affecting Hispaniola.
Nicole will prevail north of Puerto Rico enhancing convection,
seas and winds across the northeast Caribbean. The next tropical
wave will approach the Lesser Antilles with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across the Dominican Republic associated with
the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Nicole centered in the SW N
Atlantic waters. Showers will continue through the next 24 hours as
a tropical wave approaches from the east.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew is now N of our forecast waters, however
tropical storm force winds prevail over central and NE Florida
adjacent waters with seas up to 12 ft. The second feature of
concern is Tropical Storm Nicole located about 452 nm south of
Bermuda. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details and also
the Special Features section above. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored
by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N19W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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