[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 082055
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Hurricane Matthew is gradually losing tropical characteristics
while it becomes embedded within a mid-latitude trough. The
hurricane is accompanied by a very extensive area of intense
rains mostly located north of the center. Recent data from an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the winds are still 65
kt, and these winds are limited to a small area over water east of
the center. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the
mid-level circulation due to strong shear. Most of the global
models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will
become entangled with a cold front, and the NHC forecast calls for
Matthew to weaken and become absorbed within this frontal system
within the next couple of days.

Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving
toward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 10 kt while hugging the
coast of South Carolina.  During the next 12 hours or so, while the
Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical
structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and
strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions
of the coast within the warning area.

Since Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow
and the steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or
two, the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward or east-
southeastward until it becomes absorbed.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will
persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the
coastline, and have also increased the threat of storm surge in
portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.  Please see the
Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
areas at risk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 33.8N  78.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 34.5N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  71.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1800Z 33.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net