[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 082038
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

A tremendous burst of deep convection has developed this afternoon,
partially covering and southeast of Nicole's low-level center. A
late-morning ASCAT pass indicated 41-kt uncontaminated wind vectors
east of the center, and given the recent burst of convection, the
initial intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt. This is in
agreement with latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 195/05.  A blocking ridge north of
Nicole should keep Nicole moving on this general course for another
12 hours or so, though its forward speed should begin to decrease.
As the ridge shifts to the northeast of Nicole by late tomorrow, the
cyclone should reverse its motion 180 degrees and begin moving
north-northwestward.  The global models continue to show a binary
interaction between Matthew or its remnants in 2 to 3 days, but the
ECMWF no longer is drawing Nicole as far west as it was previously.
A turn toward the north and then northeast is expected by days 4 and
5.  The track guidance has come into much better agreement and has
resulted in a more confident track forecast this cycle.  The new
forecast track is slower than the previous one and shifted a bit to
the east but not as far east as the model consensus aids.

As high as the vertical shear has been over Nicole, it is puzzling
that no additional weakening has taken place.  At a minimum, the
strong northerly shear should preclude significant intensification
in the short term.  A nominal decrease in the shear over the next
couple of days could allow Nicole to re-intensify, perhaps more than
indicated in this forecast.  A more substantial reduction of the
shear is forecast by 72 hours, and a re-intensification of the
cyclone seems more likely than it did earlier on days 3 and 4,
similar to what the global models have been showing.  By the end of
the forecast period, increasing shear could cause the intensity to
level off. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous
one and is generally near the multi-model consensus. It continues to
be of low confidence after 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 24.8N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.2N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.2N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 24.7N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 30.4N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 33.9N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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