[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 061435
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since the last advisory,
and consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the
southeastern portion of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northern semicircle of the storm.  Dvorak
classifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity
estimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory
intensity is held at 60 kt.  Although Nicole could reach hurricane
strength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to
a slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow.  The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to
be about 325/5 kt.  A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast
of Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops
southward into the area.  This will leave the tropical cyclone in
weak steering currents within the next day or so.  A high pressure
area is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole
during the next couple of days, and this should force some
southward component of motion.  Overall, however, the official
forecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion
throughout the period.  This is in reasonable agreement with the
dynamical model consensus.

Swells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting
Bermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the
next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 26.8N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 27.5N  65.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 27.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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