[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 061143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

...SEVERE HURRICANE MATTHEW APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS ALREADY APPROACHING FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and
in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 77.5 West. Matthew is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight.  On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should
pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern
Bahamas during the next few hours, pass near Grand Bahama
Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected
today, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it
approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas recently reported sustained
winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over the central Bahamas
and spread into the northwestern Bahamas today.  Winds will
continue to diminish over the southeastern Bahamas this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida by late this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area on the Florida Gulf Coast beginning later today.

Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Savannah River to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast and Georgia coast from Deerfield Beach to Altamaha Sound.
 There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated totals of 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...less than one additional inch, isolated
storm-totals of 8 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.  These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net