[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 060841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016

Nicole is maintaining its intensity.  The cloud pattern has
generally changed little since the previous advisory, and it
consists of a central dense overcast feature with some curved bands
to the east of the center.  Earlier microwave data did show a
mid-level eye, but this feature is not apparent in geostationary
satellite images.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
remain 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, and therefore, the
initial wind speed is held at 60 kt.  Although not explicitly
forecast, Nicole could reach hurricane strength today before it
moves into an area of stronger shear on Friday.  The expected
increase in shear and a drier air mass should lead to a slow
weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours.  The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one and is in line with the
bulk of the guidance.

Nicole is still moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwest side
of a mid-level ridge.  A trough currently off the coast of New
England is expected to move southeastward and erode the ridge.
This pattern change will likely leave Nicole in weak steering
currents beginning in about 24 hours.  As a result, the storm is
expected to move slowly and erratically throughout much of the
forecast period.  The guidance is very divergent and shows solutions
in nearly every direction.  The NHC official track forecast is
a little to the west of the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus aids.  Given the large model spread, the NHC track
forecast is of low confidence.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were modified based on an ASCAT pass
around 0100 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 26.5N  64.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 27.3N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 27.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 27.8N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 27.2N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 26.7N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 29.5N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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