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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM ENE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a northwestward
turn tonight.  On this track, Matthew will be moving across the
Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east
coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slight strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter planes was 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the
northwestern portion of Haiti this morning.  Hurricane conditions
are likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the
southeastern Bahamas.  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread
over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and
should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican
Republic this morning.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch areas in Cuba this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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