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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to Fernandina Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected today, followed by a northwest turn
tonight.  Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through
Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of
Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slight strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the
northwest portion of Haiti this morning.  Hurricane conditions are
likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern
Bahamas.  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the
central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and
should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican
Republic this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba this morning with tropical storm conditions possible this
morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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