[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 050550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTER OF MATTHEW NORTH
OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along
with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the north
near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
today, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night.  Matthew
will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected
to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions could still be affecting the northwest
portion of Haiti.  Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over
eastern Cuba, and will begin in portions of the southeastern Bahamas
within the next few hours, the central Bahamas later today, and the
northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and
eastern Cuba this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are spreading
over the southeastern Bahamas, and should reach the central and
northwestern Bahamas later today, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still
occurring in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning
area, and these conditions will spread northward into the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in
Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible overnight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the
tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3
inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches
Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to
7 inches, isolated 10 inches
Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern
and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and
eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of
life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the
Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet.
There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the
next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county
line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during
the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net