[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Oct 4 22:34:39 CDT 2016

WTUS82 KMLB 050334
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-051145-

HURRICANE MATTHEW LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  AL142016
1134 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
      INDIAN RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN
    - A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN LAKE
      COUNTY...SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY
    - A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND VOLUSIA
      COUNTY...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN
      RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN
    - A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE
      COUNTY...SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY
    - A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA
      COUNTY...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
    - A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD
      COUNTY...NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL OR ABOUT 620
      MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE FL
    - 20.4N 74.4W
    - STORM INTENSITY 130 MPH
    - MOVEMENT NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO INDICATE MATTHEW WILL TURN NORTHWEST OVER
THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND PARALLEL THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE OVERALL THREAT FROM MATTHEW TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS SERIOUS AND
THE PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED RELATIVE TO THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST, SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, INCLUDING THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
OKEECHOBEE, OSCEOLA, ORANGE, SEMINOLE, AND LAKE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW AND ITS FORECASTED CLOSE APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST, HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND EVEN SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG MARTIN, SAINT LUCIE, INDIAN
RIVER, BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE INUNDATION ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK OVER
12 FEET AND PRODUCE ROUGH, POUNDING SURF RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CORE OF MATTHEW TRACKS. A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MANY SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM
RECENT RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE WATER
PONDING.

ANY FURTHER SHIFTS TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INCREASE
THE ASSOCIATED THREATS FROM HURRICANE MATTHEW. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING IMPACTS
ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
    - STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
      AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
      GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
      MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
    - NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
      ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
    - MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
      OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
      ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
    - WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

ALSO, PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
TO EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

* SURGE:
PREPARE FOR LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
    - AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED BY
      WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST.
    - SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS BECOME
      WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOW
      SPOTS.
    - MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. STRONG AND
      NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
    - MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, PIERS, AND OTHER
      COASTAL STRUCTURES. SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM
      MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY THOSE
AREAS CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF HURRICANE MATTHEW. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
      RESCUES.
    - SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES WILL OVERFLOW.
    - SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
      STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
      WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* TORNADOES:
PREPARE FOR A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
      OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
    - A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
      AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
    - LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
      TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
      LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
      KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
      PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

IF EVACUATING AWAY FROM THE AREA OR RELOCATING TO A NEARBY SHELTER,
LEAVE EARLY BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS.

WHEN MAKING SAFETY AND PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS, DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THERE ARE INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
WHICH MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

WHEN SECURING YOUR PROPERTY, OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCTED
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE CERTAIN PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES TO BECOME UNSAFE.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MELBOURNE FL AROUND 6 AM EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

ULRICH
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