[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Matthew is centered near 16.3N 74.7W at 03/2100 UTC or
about 120 nm S of Tiburon Haiti and about 195 nm SW of Port au
Prince Haiti moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to
145 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection is from 14N-17N
between 73W-76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 11N-21N between 68W-78W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N60W that nearly
coincides with a mid-level area of low pressure on the southern
periphery of a middle to upper level ridge to the north anchored
along 30N. The low is expected to move NW at 10-15 kt through
Wednesday. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-25N between
55W-60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N49N to 14N45W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 14N between
42W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-18N between
38W-51W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N19W to 04N28W to 05N37W. Isolated moderate convection is from
02N-08W between 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough extends over the SE CONUS and central Gulf
with axis from over eastern Alabama southward to over the Yucatan
peninsula and a base over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region in the
eastern Pacific. Global models indicate mid-level shortwave energy
on the back side of the trough in the vicinity of 25N90W that
supports a surface trough from 22N94W to 26N92W. Widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 21N-26N between
89W-93W...mainly E of the surface trough axis. East of the upper
level trough axis...diffluence is maximized N of 24N E of 85W
supporting scattered showers and tstms across the far eastern Gulf
waters and portions of the Florida peninsula. Otherwise...gentle
to moderate E-NE winds are expected through the overnight hours
into Tuesday and then winds will shift more anticyclonic and
remain in the gentle to moderate range Tuesday night into
Wednesday as Hurricane Matthew tracks through the Windward Passage
region and into the SW North Atlc waters. The pressure gradient is
expected to strengthen Wednesday across the far eastern Gulf and
Florida peninsula as Matthew tracks N-NW providing the eastern
Gulf with fresh to strong NE winds through the remainder of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main concern is Hurricane Matthew located in the central
Caribbean tracking towards the Windward Passage region. An upper
level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of 85W while an upper
level trough axis extends from over the Yucatan peninsula S-SW to
over western Guatemala this evening. The upper level troughing is
supportive of isolated showers and tstms across the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise as Matthew tracks generally northward the next few
days...the trades will continue to be disrupted through Tuesday
night into Wednesday when Matthew is expected to be centered north
of eastern Cuba in the SW North Atlc region. Trades will begin re-
establishing themselves from east to west thereafter through the
second half of next week.

...HISPANIOLA...
Cloudiness and convection associated with the outer bands of
Matthew continues moving over the island this evening. Matthew
remains centered S-SW of Hispaniola with numerous showers and
scattered tstms expected to continue through the overnight hours
into Tuesday. Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti on
Tuesday bringing strong winds...heavy rainfall...life-threatening
flash flooding...mud slides...dangerous storm surge...and large
destructive waves.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough with axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is providing much of the far northwestern portions of the SW
North Atlc N of 25N W of 73W with moist and unstable SW flow
aloft. This trough supports a surface trough extending from
32N75W to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Scattered showers
and tstms are generally occurring N of 26N W of 73W. The
remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of the
overall broad cyclonic circulation of Matthew as it tracks
northward toward the Windward Passage region of the Caribbean Sea
waters. Outer convective bands are generating scattered showers
and tstms across much of eastern Cuba...Hispaniola...Puerto
Rico...and a large portion of the Leeward Islands. The other
important feature in the Atlc is a 1012 mb special features low
centered near 24N60W mentioned above. Otherwise...the remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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