[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Matthew is centered near 15.6N 75.0W at 03/1500
UTC or about 239 nm SW of Port au Prince Haiti and about 178 nm
SE of Kingston Jamaica moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120
kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N-
17N between 73W-77W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 11N-20N between 69W-78W. The center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late
Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall,
life-threatening flash flooding, mud slides, dangerous storm
surge and large destructive waves are expected. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A 1012 mb low is centered over the Central Atlantic near 23N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-24N between 56W-59W.
Some development of this low is possible during the next couple
of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10-15 kt during the next few days. This
system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next
48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 14N43W
to 06N47W moving W at 10 kt. Upper level diffluence and abundant
low level moisture is noted in the wave environment using CIRA
LPW data. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the
axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 06N30W to 08N37W. Aside
from the showers associated with the tropical wave, isolated
moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 15W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico from 26N91W
to 22N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough
axis. Surface winds are mostly 5-10 kt throughout the Gulf. In
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico east of the trough axis from 24N-30N
between 82W-87W mostly due to upper level diffluence. Expect 10-
15 kt easterly surface winds to enter the SE Gulf Tuesday due to
the outer periphery of Matthew's wind field. Also expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SE Gulf
and Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in
the Central Caribbean. See the special features section for
details. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Haiti,
Eastern Cuba , and the Southeastern Bahamas. Matthew is forecast
to be near the SW tip of Haiti in 24 hours. Haiti, E Cuba, and
Jamaica will all have the possibility for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides within 24 hours. In the upper levels,
westerlies prevail over the Caribbean except over Matthew.
Expect Matthew to follow a mostly northerly track over the next
three to four days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection associated with the outer bands of
major Hurricane Matthew are already over most of Hispaniola. The
center of Matthew is expected to reach the SW tip of Haiti
Tuesday bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening
flash flooding, mud slides, dangerous storm surge and large
destructive waves. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the
southwestern portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible
isolated amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. See the special features
section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the Western Atlantic from 31N76W
to S Florida near 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is is
north of the wave axis from 28N-31N between 78W-81W. A 1011 mb
low is over the Central Atlantic near 23N58W. See above. This
low is supported aloft by an upper level low centered near
22N57W. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 26N41W.
Expect Hurricane Matthew to move into the Atlantic north of E
Cuba Tuesday evening, and continue over the Western Atlantic S
of 30N for the next two days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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