[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 031457
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z.  Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
advisory.  The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb.  Little overall change
in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
Haiti and eastern Cuba.  However, there could be fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane through the next 5 days.

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope.  After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times.  The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east.  The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out.  In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 15.6N  75.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.0N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 18.9N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.8N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 22.6N  74.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 28.5N  77.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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