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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 75.0 West.  Matthew is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday with an increase in forward
speed expected tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern
Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected
to remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, and the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
Haiti this afternoon, eastern Cuba tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas early Tuesday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica and along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days.  Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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