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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 75.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Southeastern Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for the Central
Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the small eye of Hurricane
Matthew was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 75.0 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti on Monday and into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, located about 20 miles north of
Matthew's center, recently reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108
km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern portion
of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches.  Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches.  Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2
inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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