[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.8N 73.6W at 02/0300 UTC or
about 295 nm south-southwest of Port Au Prince Haiti moving
N-NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection is from 11N to 16N between
68W-75W. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the
Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to
21N with an associated 1012 mb low centered near 12N37W. Both the
wave and the low has been moving at 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear from 9N to
15N. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show dry air pockets W of the
wave axis and Meteosat enhanced imagery show Saharan dry air and
dust in the wave environment, which is inhibiting deep convection
at the time. Isolated showers are within 210 nm S semicircle of
the low.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic NE of the Leeward Islands
extending from 15N to 25N with axis near 57W, moving WNW at 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly unfavorable
deep layer wind shear and dry air dominates its environment
according to CIRA LPW imagery from surface to 850 mb. Isolated
showers are within 120 nm E of its axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 17N16W to 12N30W to a 1012 mb low
near 12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N
between 23W and 34W, from 11N to 13N E of 18W and from 13N to 23N
between 46W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad deep layered low centered over Michigan with troughing
dipping southward to a base over the north-central Gulf continue
to support a stationary front that extends across the norther to
central Florida peninsula to 28N82W to 25N90W to 24N96W. Moisture
inflow from the Caribbean and the SW N Atlantic water support
scattered to isolated showers within 120 nm either side of the
frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate E-NE flow dominates the
basin, the strongest winds being N and S of the front. The front
is expected to gradually become diffuse today Sunday and a weak
ridge will set in Monday through Wednesday extending from the SE
CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin continues to be major Hurricane
Matthew located in the south-central Caribbean. See the special
features section for details. A short-wave upper level trough
extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico to a base over Honduras. To the
east, a broad upper level ridge covers the remainder Caribbean and
generates diffluent flow in the NW basin to support isolated
showers and tstms off the southern Cuba coast and within 120 nm
off the Honduras coast. Otherwise, as Matthew tracks N-NW across
the central Caribbean through early Tuesday, the trades will
continue to be disrupted. Trades will begin to re-establish from
east to west Wednesday through early next weekend. The next
tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Sunday and will be
absorbed by Matthew Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

High level cloudiness associated with Hurricane Matthew in the
south-central Caribbean continue to cover the Island. The GOES QPE
imagery show accumulations of 1 inch of rain over central and
southern Dominican Republic during the last 6 hours. The center of
Matthew is expected to pass through SW Haiti Monday night then
northward through the Windward Passage and E Cuba. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches
over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40
inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over the Dominican Republic with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. See special features
for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers prevail in the SW North Atlc west of 72W ahead
of a stationary front across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The
remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1019 mb high NE of the forecast waters. Hurricane
Matthew will move into the SW North Atlc by early Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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