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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND MUCH OF HAITI...
...MATTHEW EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 73.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Haiti from the southern
border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Haiti from east of Le Mole
St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic.

The Meteorological Service of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for
eastern Cuba from the province of Camaguey southeastward to the
province of Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.  A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of the Bahamas tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 73.4 West.  Matthew is currently
drifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow
northwestward motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A
turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed
are expected Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica
and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the
next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach these areas by late Sunday or Sunday night,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible the hurricane watch areas by
Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire
through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest
Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches.  Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated  maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...5 to 8 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...2 to 4 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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