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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 73.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Le Mole St. Nicholas

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.  A Hurricane Watch could be needed for
portions of eastern Cuba later today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 73.4 West.  While Matthew has
been moving erratically for the past couple of hours, overall the
center has drifted southward at around 2 mph (4 km/h).  A faster
motion toward the west should resume later today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest by tonight. A turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Sunday, with northward motion expected on
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica and southwestern Haiti Sunday night and Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.
Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the
next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in
Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Sunday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba
by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Monday.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Barranquilla.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela
from Coro to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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