[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N19W to 04N29W to 08N37W to 02N45W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from the Equator to 10N between 19W-37W. A surface
trough is embedded within the ITCZ from a 1011 mb low near 08N37W
to 13N39W. Convection associated with the low is included within
the widely scattered convection area mentioned above.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates middle to upper level ridging over
the Gulf basin this morning that continues to support a surface
ridge axis extending from the across the coastal areas of the
Carolinas SW through the Florida Big Bend region to the northern
coast of the Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W. Moderate to occasional
fresh SE winds prevail E of 90W while fresh to strong S-SE winds
are noted W of 90W. The return flow is occurring within the
southern periphery of an intense area of low pressure analyzed
across the northern US Plains. The associated cold front is
expected to move eastward across Texas on Monday and emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts Monday night into early Tuesday and
likely stall across the NW Gulf waters. Another reinforcing and
strong cold front is expected into the NW Gulf region Wednesday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is progressing eastward
over the north-central Caribbean with axis extending SW to 12N77W.
Dry and stable NW flow prevails W of the trough axis with fair
skies and conditions across the NW Caribbean...Central America...
and the SW Caribbean N of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 10N across
portions of Panama and Costa Rica. E of the trough axis...middle
to upper level moisture and cloudiness increase within W-SW flow
aloft. A surface trough extends across Hispaniola from 20N70W to
12N70W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated strong
tstms occurring N of 12N between 61W-69W. Otherwise...moderate SE
winds prevail E of the trough axis and moderate to occasional
fresh NE winds prevail W of the trough axis.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends along 70W and is providing focus for
isolated showers across the island this morning...while scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring to the E of 69W and
continuing to move eastward away from the region. A middle to
upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery
moving over the island currently and once this feature moves E of
the region by Monday night...NW flow aloft and a much drier and
more stable environment will prevail for much of the week ahead.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the SW
North Atlc into the central Atlc with axis extending into the
discussion area near 32N63W SW to over Hispaniola and into the SW
Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from
32N60W SW to 26N74W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed
from the cold front near 28N66W S-SW to 20N70W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the cold front and
surface trough from 18N-32N between 54W-69W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1024 mb high centered across the Outer Banks of North
Carolina. Farther east...an upper level trough is noted in the
vicinity of 30N37W that supports a 1015 mb low centered near
29N37W. A stationary front extends from the low to 23N42W with
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring within 330 nm NE of
a surface trough extending from the low to 24N29W. The area of
lower pressure extends southward focused along a surface trough
from 26N36W to 18N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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