[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N20W to 05N25W to 05N31W to 04N37W to 05N43W. Numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is from 03N-09N between 09W-
30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N-
11N between 22W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the eastern CONUS
with mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery over
the Carolinas and Georgia this morning progressing eastward. The
shortwave supports an area of low pressure analyzed across the
Carolinas and offshore waters to the NE with the associated cold
front extending across coastal South Carolinas and North Florida
to 30N84W W-SW to 28N89W becoming stationary to the far southern
Texas coast near 26N97W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60
nm either side of the front E of 90W...and across much of the
western Gulf waters W of 90W. The cold front is expected to become
reinforced by a weak impulse of energy currently across eastern
Texas with N-NE winds increasing slightly from gentle to moderate
levels into moderate to occasional fresh by Saturday night.
Surface ridging to the north across the mid-Mississippi River
valley this morning will slide E-SE through Sunday and anchor
across the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. On Sunday...
southerly return flow across the western Gulf will gradually
increase into fresh to strong levels as an area of low pressure
ejects out of the Rockies into the central Plains and moves N-NE
into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Monday. The associated
cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
eastern Cuba and portions of the north-central Caribbean as upper
level ridging persists over the NW Caribbean...Central America...
along with much of the eastern Caribbean E of 72W. At the
surface...fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds prevail between
lower pressure across northern South America and a 1023 mb high
centered across the SW North Atlc region near 31N65W. Most
intense convection is occurring across the western Caribbean and
portions of Central America with scattered showers and strong
tstms generally S of 17N E of 70W to Central America across
Nicaragua and Honduras. The pressure gradient is forecast to
relax with the resulting trades expected to decrease late
Saturday as the ridge to the north moves E-NE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A shear line extends across the southern portion of the SW North
Atlc from 20N64W across northern Hispaniola to Jamaica. The
boundary continues to provide low-level moisture convergence
across the region and a discontinuity in wind speed...generally
fresh to the north...and gentle to moderate to the south with
funneling NE winds through the Windward Passage. Isolated showers
persist mainly within the adjacent coastal waters this morning
however later today given peak daytime heating and instability...
afternoon and evening scattered showers and tstms will be possible
across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N65W and influences much of the
SW North Atlc this morning with moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds prevailing W of 58W. Water vapor imagery indicates a mid-
level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the Carolinas
supporting a cold front analyzed from a 1017 mb low centered near
35N78W SW North Florida that will emerge off the eastern US coast
this morning. Fresh to occasional strong northerly winds will
follow in wake of the front by Sunday as high pressure builds in
behind the front. Across the central Atlc...an upper to middle
level trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N48W with the
associated stationary front analyzed from 32N43W to 30N47W into a
1014 mb low near 25N52W to 21N56W to 20N64W linking up with a
shear line extending to northern Hispaniola near 20N72W. Isolated
showers are noted N of 22N between 41W-51W with possible isolated
showers elsewhere within 150 nm either side of the front and shear
line W of 51W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a middle to upper level trough along 33W
promoting an upper level diffluent environment supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 15N-26N between 16W-
33W. In addition...an upper level low is centered near 40N10W
over the adjacent coastal waters of the Iberian peninsula
supporting a dissipating cold front extending into the discussion
area near 32N10W. The front extends to the E of the Canary
Islands near 28N13W then W-SW to 26N20W. Fresh to occasional
strong NW winds follow in wake of the front across far NE portions
of the discussion area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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