[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251210 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS...correction for T.S. Otto
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
538 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.5N 86.9W at 25/0900 UTC
or about 120 nm west-northwest of Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica moving
west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 10N-13N
between 85W and 89W. The center of Otto will continue to move
away from the coast of Central America today. Heavy rains
associated with Otto will continue to affect portions of northern
Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua into early this morning. These
rains are expected to move offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
into the eastern Pacific later today. Earlier heavy rains and the
potential additional rainfall will continue to pose the threat of
life-threatening floods and mudslides across these regions. Swells
generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions over the next several days along the
coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Otto is no longer
in the Atlantic Basin. Future advisories for this system can now
be found on NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ
that continues along 5N30W to 8N40W to 8N44W. Isolated showers are
within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

With westerly flow aloft and gentle easterly to northeasterly wind
at the surface across the northern Gulf, a front continues to
stall from SE Louisiana near 29N90W to 27N97W. Except for low
level moisture being advected from the Caribbean to the Bay of
Campeche, CIRA layer precipitable water and water vapor imagery
show deep layer dry air elsewhere, thus maintaining fair weather
conditions. Surface ridging ahead of the front and anchored by a
1026 mb high in the NW Atlantic provide with gentle easterly flow
N of 26N while the latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong
E flow across the Florida Straits and the SE basin. Moderate N-NE
flow is within 120 nm off the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. In the SW Gulf, a surface trough is noted extending
from 26N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W with possible
isolated showers within 150 nm either side of its axis. The
stationary front is forecast to transition to a cold front before
noon today. The newly formed cold front will reach from northern
Florida to central Texas early Saturday. The surface trough will
prevail in SW waters through Saturday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Otto are
affecting the NW Caribbean basin from 12N to 19N where scattered
heavy showers are observed, including inland NE Nicaragua. For
further details about Otto see special features above. Diffluent
flow associated with an upper ridge anchored over northern
Venezuela along with abundant low to middle moisture across the
region support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms in the
central Caribbean S of 19N between 70W and 80W. Similar
convection is in the SE basin S of 13N. The tail of a stationary front
extending from the central Atlantic SW to along northern Hispaniola
adjacent waters support cloudiness across the Island as well as
scattered to isolated showers. High pressure over the NW Atlantic
will continue to support fresh to strong northeast winds over the
northern-central and northwest basin through Saturday before
sunrise.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail of a stationary front extending from the central
Atlantic to northern Hispaniola adjacent waters support
cloudiness across the Island as well as scattered to isolated
showers. Showers are expected mainly across the northern Island
through Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level low in the NW Atlantic with associated trough
extending S-SW to near 30N supports a stationary front from
30N47W to 23N57W to 21N66W to NW Hispaniola coastal waters near
20N73W. Ahead of the front, two surface troughs are observed; one
extending from 26N50W to 22N51W and the second from 27N38W to
20N38W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the
westernmost trough. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150
nm either side of the second trough. Surface ridging and fair
weather is W of the stationary front as well as N of 22N E of
24W. Otherwise, in the tropics, a surface trough is along 16N42W
to 8N45W with scattered to isolated showers within 120 nm either
side of its axis. Scattered moderate convection is NE of this
trough from 12N to 18N between 27W and 42W. The stationary front
is forecast to dissipate Saturday night. A pair of cold fronts
will move into SW N Atlantic waters Saturday afternoon and evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS/PAW
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