[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center Hurricane Otto at 25/0000 UTC is near 11.0N 84.9W,
or about 5 nm to the SW of San Carlos in Nicaragua, or about 57 nm
to the E of San Juan del Sur in Nicaragua. Hurricane Otto is
moving W, or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65
knots with gusts to 75 knots. Please read the PUBLIC ADVISORIES
about Hurricane Otto, that are being issued under the WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Hurricane Otto are being issued under
the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 10N in
Costa Rica to 13N in Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N to 19N between 80W and 86W, to the north of Otto,
in Nicaragua, in Honduras, and in other parts of the Caribbean
Sea.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Liberia near
06N11W, to 05N12W and 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to
06N30W and 09N40W, and from 10N48W to 09N61W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm
to 120 nm on either side of 04N05W 02N14W 06N27W 08N35W 09N40W,
and within 30 nm to 60 nm on either side of 09N45W 09N55W 11N62W.

A surface trough curves along 13N45W 10N46W 07N47W. Convective
precipitation: any precipitation is also part of the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ precipitation.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 94W
eastward. A separate area of upper level anticyclonic wind
flow is moving from Mexico, into the Gulf of Mexico, reaching 90W.
The upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is moving from Mexico
into the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico is overtaking the
original area that has been present from 94W eastward.

A shallow stationary front passes through SE Louisiana, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, and to the deep south of Texas.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible along and to
the north of the stationary front.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N72W, to 31N80W, to 29N87W,
in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rainshowers are possible from 28N southward from 84W eastward,
and from 26N southward from 86W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the area that runs from NE Mexico,
along the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present now,
and gale-force winds are forecast to continue to be present, for
most of the next two days, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KEIR and KSPR.

MVFR: KVQT and KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Alice. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson.
MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA:
light rain in Marathon in the Florida Keys.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area, except
for the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level ridge
extends from the coast of Venezuela near 10N66W, northwestward,
toward the Yucatan Channel.

Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 12N to 14N between 65W and 67W, and from 13N to 17N between
70W and 80W. Numerous strong along the coast of Colombia from 11N
to 12N between 73W and 74W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
24/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.30 in
Trinidad, 0.21 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.17 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico, 0.04 in Kingston in Jamaica, and 0.02 in St. Thomas
in the Virgin Islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area. The
southernmost end of a dissipating Atlantic Ocean cold front
reaches 19N69W at the Atlantic Ocean coast of the Dominican
Republic. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
in the coastal waters/coastal areas of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona and Santo Domingo: VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR/no
ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR.
ceiling at 1200 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: MVFR.
ceiling at 1700 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during day one. A trough will approach the
area from the west during day two. SW wind flow will become NW
wind flow after the trough crosses the island. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will consist of NE wind
flow, with an E-to-W oriented trough. Day two will start with NE
wind flow, changing to NW wind flow. W wind flow will develop with
a ridge for the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area, with
a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. Expect E wind flow for day two. An
anticyclonic circulation center will be to the north of
Hispaniola.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 26N54W to 22N61W. The cold
front is dissipating from 22N61W to 19N69W at the coast of the
Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within a 30 nm radius of 26N48W. Rainshowers are possible also to
the west of the line that passes through 32N45W, 28N50W, 19N53W,
to 16N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is
to the W and NW of the cold front. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
also covers the area that is from 28N northward between 24W and
the cold front.

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W to 23N40W 16N44W and
09N49W. A surface trough is along 25N37W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 21N38W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 27N
from 44W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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