[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
546 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Otto is centered near 11.0N 82.8W at 24/1200 UTC or
about 60 nm north of Limon, Costa Rica and about 85 nm southeast
of Bluefields, Nicaragua moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85
kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 10N
to 14N between 81W and 84W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is south of 19N between 78W and 85W. Please
see latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 11N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ
that continues along 8N26W to 6N33W to 9N43W. The ITCZ then
resumes west of a surface trough near 9N47W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 8N-11N between 20W and 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough extending from Ohio south to
Alabama and Georgia to the NW Gulf is supporting a stationary front
from Louisiana near 29N91W to the southern tip of Texas near
26N97W with possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of
the frontal boundary. Deep layer dry air prevails elsewhere, thus
maintaining fair weather conditions across the remainder basin.
Surface ridging ahead of the front provide with gentle variable
winds in the NE Gulf while the latest scatterometer data show
fresh to strong E-NE flow in the SE basin. Variable gentle flow is
W of 90W. The stationary front will extend along the northern Gulf
coastline through Friday morning when it will transition to a
cold front. The newly formed cold front will reach from northern
Florida to central Texas early Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean continue to be the main concern
in the basin. The center of Otto will make landfall within the
hurricane warning area today and move across southern Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica through this evening. The center of Otto
is expected to reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight. Some strengthening is possible
before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and Otto is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight. Total rainfall
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can
be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua
through today. These rains will likely result in life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Please see Special Features above for
further details. The remnants of a stationary front extending from
the central Atlantic support scattered to isolated showers in the
northern-central Caribbean N of 16N between 67W and 77W. Isolated
showers are across Hispaniola. High pressure building over the
west Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong northeast
winds over the northern-central and northwest basin through
Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The remnants of a stationary front extending from the central
Atlantic supports scattered to isolated showers in the Hispaniola
and southern adjacent waters N of 16N between 67W and 77W. Showers
associated with this feature will continue through the morning
hours today....ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough N of 30N between 50W and 65W
supports a cold front from 30N51W to 25N58W where it transitions
to a stationary front to 20N64W. A surface trough follows from the
tail of the front to the eastern Dominican Republic to north-
central Caribbean waters. Isolated showers are within 60 nm
either side of the front. N of 25N west of the front surface
ridging and fair weather conditions prevail. In the NE basin, an
upper level low continue to reflect as a surface trough along
26N31W to 20N35W. The front will weaken today as it is dragged
into the Central Atlantic. The surface ridge over the west
Atlantic will shift eastward through Friday night. A cold front
will move into the northwest waters Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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