[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 11.3N 79.2W at 21/2100 UTC
or about 165 nm east-southeast of San Andres Island or about 275
nm east of Bluefields, Nicaragua remaining nearly stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N-13N between 78W-80W.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from
14N to over Panama and Costa Rica between 78W-83W. Please see
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W to 13N18W. The ITCZ begins near 13N39W along
11N46W to near 11N55W. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are from 9N-15N between 25W-40W and
from 8N-10N between 53W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains over the Gulf of Mexico this
evening with a surface ridge extending over the Gulf from the
east CONUS anchored by a 1027 mb high over Indiana and a 1025 mb
high over southeast Louisiana. This is giving the Gulf clear
skies and tranquil conditions except in the southwest Gulf where
a weak surface trough extends just off the coast of Mexico from
23N97W to 19N93W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of
the surface trough. The surface ridge will shift eastward
tonight, diminishing winds and seas. A cold front will move into
the north Gulf Wednesday night, then stall and weaken on
Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The primary concern this evening is newly formed Tropical Storm
Otto. Please see Special Features above. A leading stationary
front extends from the central Atlantic across central Puerto
Rico along 14N72W to northeast of T.S. Otto near 13N77W.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within
120 nm east and 150 nm west of this front. A second remnant
stationary front extends from the west Atlantic across Cuba near
22N78W then west of the Cayman Islands to 19N84W. This front is
embedded within dry, stable air aloft limiting shower activity.
T.S. Otto is expected drift west through Wednesday and could
become a hurricane later in the week. The remnant front over the
northwest Caribbean is beginning to wash out. The leading
stationary front will persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic
across Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the the
Dominican Republic this evening. In addition, daytime heating is
producing some isolated showers dotting the remainder of the
island. Lingering moisture coupled with the close proximity of
the front could continue to give the island showers and possible
thunderstorms through Thursday, with the highest concentration
over the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west into the central Atlantic
supporting a leading stationary front that extends through
32N53W along 24N61W into the Caribbean across Puerto Rico.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within
60 nm east of the front. A reinforcing cold front extends through
32N60W along 26N67W to the Bahama Islands near 23N75W where it
pulls up stationary across Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean
near 22N78W. This reinforcing cold front is embedded within dry,
stable air aloft, limiting shower activity. A surface ridge
anchored over the eastern CONUS extends over the far west
Atlantic west of the reinforcing cold front. An upper ridge
anchored along the coast of Venezuela and extends a ridge axis
across the northern Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic
and is providing difflunce aloft to generate dense overcast
clouds with possible scattered showers within 200 nm of the
leading stationary front south of 27N. An upper low in the east
Atlantic is centered near 23N37W supporting a surface trough
that extends from 26N39W through a 1011 mb low near 20N34W
continuing  to 15N37W. The upper low is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 23N-26N between
35W-39W. An upper ridge to the east of the upper low is
providing difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers from 15N-
22N between 24W-34W. A surface ridge dominates the east Atlantic
north of 26N east of 50W anchored by a 1031 mb high about north
of the Azores. The west Atlantic reinforcing cold front will
continue to move east merging with the leading stationary front
Tuesday. The stationary portion of the reinforcing front will
dissipate by Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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