[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 211434
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming
better organized, with some banding features over the northern and
western portions of the circulation and small bursts of deep
convection near or over the estimated center.  The current
intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
TAFB, pending an Air Force reconnaissance mission into the
cyclone this afternoon.  There is moderate south-southeasterly shear
over the depression, and this should allow for only slow
strengthening over the next day or two.  In 72 hours or so, some
relaxation of the shear is forecast with an upper-level anticyclone
developing over the tropical cyclone, and the system is predicted to
become a hurricane before landfall.  The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one, and is close to the latest SHIPS
model guidance.

Satellite-derived center fixes indicate little motion since late
yesterday.  The depression is currently located near a col in the
mid-level flow, so steering currents are very weak at this time.
Global model guidance shows a high developing to the north of the
system in a few days, so a generally westward track is forecast.
The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
tracks, with the former model being faster and farther south and
the latter being slower and farther north.  The new official
forecast is very similar to the previous NHC forecast track.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the system will survive
as a tropical cyclone while crossing Central America later in the
forecast period.  The current thinking is that the interaction with
land and increasing shear will reduce the system to a remnant low by
the time it reaches the east Pacific.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 11.5N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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