[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201148
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea near 11N81W, off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica,
and Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N
southward from 80W westward. Overall environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for development into a tropical cyclone. It
is possible that a tropical depression may form during the next
few days, as the low pressure center moves slowly and erratically.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is along 27N82W 23N94W
18N95W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 14 feet, to the south of 21N to the west of 95W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 23N southward
from 91W westward. Rainshowers are possible also from 26N
southward. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Senegal near
14N17W to 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N20W to 05N30W and
06N35W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 05N to 10N between 24W and 28W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow has been spreading across the rest
of the area that is to the north of the advancing cold front. The
information about the cold front and gale-force winds is in the
SPECIAL FEATURES section.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVQT and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through the area that is about 360 nm
to the east of Bermuda, ending near a point that is about 600 nm
to the SE of Bermuda. A secondary upper level trough passes
through the area that is about 480 nm to the W of Bermuda, across
the Bahamas, to NW Cuba, and into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The trough that is to the east and southeast of Bermuda
supports a cold front that passes through 32N54W to 27N56W to
22N60W. A stationary front continues from 22N60W, across NW
Puerto Rico, to 16N72W in the Caribbean Sea. The trough that is
to the west of Bermuda is supporting the cold front that is moving
through the Gulf of Mexico, with the gale-force winds. Convective
precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 24N northward between 48W and 60W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N
between 48W and 76W. Convective precipitation in the Caribbean
Sea: Some of the precipitation that was only in the coastal
sections of Colombia and Venezuela six hours ago, now has moved
into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered to numerous strong within 30 nm
to 60 nm on either side of 13N69W 14N73W 17N75W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong elsewhere from 18N southward between 67W and
80W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from SE Cuba, into the Gulf of Honduras. An upper level
ridge runs from NW Venezuela/N Colombia, to 20N81W.

The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.02 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Merida in Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
Please refer to the section with the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more details. An upper level trough passes
through the Atlantic Ocean, across NW Cuba, into the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front cuts across N central sections
of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
across the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal areas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, at 20/0200
UTC: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo:
the rain has stopped for the moment. VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
La Romana: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling at 1400 feet.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a ridge.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 30 hours to 36 hours of the
next 48 hour forecast period. A ridge will be in the SE corner of
the Caribbean Sea. A trough will be approaching from the west.
The trough reaches Haiti, spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
western half of the island, and S wind flow elsewhere for the rest
of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the
first 30 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow
will continue for the rest of the forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 31N26W, to a 22N39W cyclonic
circulation center, to 15N39W and 08N51W. A surface trough is
along 40W from 18N to 24N. A second surface trough is along
14N38W 10N43W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
20N to 28N between 30W and 42W. Isolated moderate from 07N to 09N
between 52W and 55W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N
northward between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
within 300 nm on either side of 08N42W 14N31W beyond 25N20W,
on the eastern side of the upper level trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N
northward between Africa and 50W, except near the two surface
troughs.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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