[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is in the Texas
coastal waters, from the upper Texas Gulf coast to the middle
Texas Gulf coast. Gale-force winds and gusts are present in this
area. Surface high pressure is building across Texas from the
north to the south. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate from 29N91W 19N95W westward. Please read the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20
KNHC for more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
08N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 07N22W 10N35W 07N45W,
and 07N55W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong from 13N southward from 53W
eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 10N southward between 54W and South America.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
06N to 08N between 55W and 59W.

A surface trough curves along 20N56W 16N60W, to Trinidad. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
08N to 13N between 57W and 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area, to
the east of the advancing cold front. The cold front and gale-
force wind information is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHQI.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KEMK, and KEHC.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain and thunder and MVFR conditions are in the lower
valley/the deep south of Texas. LOUISIANA: light rain in
Patterson. MVFR in Baton Rouge, and drizzle in Hammond. light rain
has ended temporarily in the SW coastal sections. MISSISSIPPI: IFR
in McComb. LIFR in Pascagoula. FLORIDA: LIFR in Crestview. MVFR in
Mary Esther. LIFR in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area,
in Apalachicola, in Tallahassee, in Brooksville.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, to the
central Bahamas, to NW Cuba, toward the coastal areas of Honduras
in Central America. The trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N56W to 30N57W to 25N60W to 22N63W. A stationary front
continues from 22N63W to 20N69W, across Hispaniola along a NE-to-
SW line, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of
Nicaragua near 14N83W. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic
Ocean: isolated moderate within 90 nm on either side of 32N55W
26N57W 23N60W, into the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation in
the Caribbean Sea: scattered strong from 15N to 18N between 74W
and 76W. scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward between
80W and the coast of Central America.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area to the east of the line
that runs from central Cuba to the central coast of Honduras. An
upper level ridge runs from the SE corner of the area beyond
Hispaniola. An upper level trough covers the rest of the area, in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.70 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
Please refer to the section with the title FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA for more details. An upper level passes
through the Atlantic Ocean, across NW Cuba, toward Honduras.
A stationary front cuts across Hispaniola along a NE-to-SW
oriented line. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible across the island, and in the coastal waters/coastal
areas.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona at 19/0000 UTC:
VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no
ceiling. La Romana: rain has ended for the moment. VFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: light rain. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. An upper level
ridge will be in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will be in the SE
corner of the Caribbean Sea. A trough will be approaching from the
west. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a changing
pattern will start with an inverted trough, followed by a
trough/ridge couplet from east-to-west for 12 hours or so,
followed by a ridge, to end day one. Day two will start with
anticyclonic wind flow for the first 12 hours or so, followed
by NE wind flow with a ridge.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough passes through the area of Bermuda, to the
central Bahamas, to NW Cuba, toward the coastal areas of Honduras
in Central America. The trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N56W to 30N57W to 25N60W to 22N63W. A stationary front
continues from 22N63W to 20N69W, across Hispaniola along a NE-to-
SW line, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea, to the northern coast of
Nicaragua near 14N83W. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic
Ocean: isolated moderate within 90 nm on either side of 32N55W
26N57W 23N60W, into the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation in
the Caribbean Sea: scattered strong from 15N to 18N between 74W
and 76W. scattered to numerous strong from 13N southward between
80W and the coast of Central America.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N15W, to a cyclonic
circulation center that is near 24N35W, to 17N43W and 10N49W.
A surface trough is along 33W/34W from 22N to 27N. A second
surface trough is along 15N30W 13N33W 10N36W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 22N to 29N between 27W and
40W. Rainshowers are possible also from 10N northward between 20W
and 60W.

A western Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a NE Florida
1022 mb high pressure center, through 28N76W, to 24N68W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 32N46W to
27N50W, to 20N56W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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